Buying rally continued at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), with the benchmark KSE-100 crossing the 191,000 level, for the first time in history, ahead of the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which is scheduled to meet later today (Monday) to decide the key policy rate.
At 10:05am, the benchmark index was hovering at 190,836.78, an increase of 1,669.96 points or 0.88%.
Buying interest was observed in key sectors, including automobile assemblers, cement, fertiliser, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs, power generation and refinery. Index-heavy stocks, including ARL, HUBCO, MARI, OGDC, FFC, HBL and MCB, traded in the green.
“With the majority of forecasters expecting a 50bps rate cut in the first MPC meeting of 2026, sentiment remains positive,” said Pakistan Kuwait Investment Company (Private) Limited on Monday.
“Lower secondary market yields, improving remittances, 9,500 bpd new oil discoveries, and over $13 billion in defence deals are reinforcing Pakistani equities’ momentum. Easing US-Iran tensions and expanding defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are further supporting confidence,” it added.
Governor SBP Jameel Ahmad will brief the media today in a press conference following the MPC meeting. In its previous meeting held on December 15, 2025, the committee surprised the market by cutting the policy rate by 50 basis points to 10.50%, as average inflation remained within the target range of 5 to 7%.
Analysts are expecting further monetary easing in today’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with a policy rate cut of 50 to 100 bps.
In another key development, Pakistan is unlikely to achieve the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) projected 3.2% GDP growth for the current fiscal year as exports and investments continue to weaken.
This was the consensus among leading economists while talking to Business Recorder, who forecast a GDP growth more likely to remain between 2.5% and 3%, provided macroeconomic stability is maintained, and no major shocks emerge.
During the previous week, the PSX capped off a powerful week of gains as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged to an all-time closing high of 189,166.83 points, rising 4,068 points or 2.2% week-on-week, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, renewed foreign engagement, falling government bond yields, and strengthening expectations of further monetary easing.
Internationally, gold surged past $5,000 per ounce on Monday, buoyed by safety flows amid dollar weakness following a turbulent week where tensions over Greenland and Iran rattled investors, while markets remained on tenterhooks after violent spikes in the yen.
The yen rose over 1% to 153.99 per dollar as of 0427 GMT, after sharp spikes on Friday sparked speculation over potential intervention. The New York Federal Reserve conducted rate checks on Friday raising the chance of joint US-Japan intervention to halt the currency’s slide.
The prospect of joint intervention to support the yen pulled the dollar lower and broadly lifted other currencies.
Japan’s Nikkei dropped about 2% while S&P 500 futures fell 0.25% and European futures were 0.27% lower as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the week.
US President Donald Trump provided temporary relief to markets last week by reversing tariff threats and downplaying potential forceful action against Greenland. However, further sanctions targeting Iran have reinforced market anxiety.
Increased US pressure against Iran is pushing oil prices higher and lifting safe-haven gold to record peaks. Precious metals, including silver, have surged in a blistering rally so far this year, also aided by a softer dollar.
