KARACHI: Pakistan is poised to face a season marked by intense heat and patchy rainfall from May to July, as per the Met Office latest forecast.
Above-normal temperatures are expected nationwide, with potential heatwaves threatening public health and crops, while rainfall will vary widely, offering both relief and risk.
Southern Punjab and Sindh are at high risk of extended heatwaves due to persistent high-pressure systems. Regions including Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) may experience 2–3 Celsius above-normal temperatures, pushing seasonal averages to their upper limits.
Northeastern Punjab is forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, while most of Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and southern KP are expected to see near-normal precipitation, helping ease drought stress.
In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, northern KP, and Kashmir may face below-normal rainfall, intensifying water stress and raising concerns over snowpack loss and ecosystem impacts. Heavy rainfall spells in late June and July could lead to urban flooding in cities and flash floods in hill torrent areas.
Farmers in southern regions should maintain consistent irrigation due to continued soil moisture deficits caused by extreme temperatures. Late-season rains could support crop growth but also threaten harvest delays and waterlogging.
Accelerated snowmelt in GB and Kashmir, driven by elevated temperatures, may cause rising river levels, necessitating active reservoir management and flood preparedness downstream.
Flash flooding is anticipated in major urban areas of Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and KP, particularly in July. Drainage systems must be cleared and maintained. Dust storms, strong winds, and hailstorms may occur due to sharp thermal gradients, especially in central plains.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to stay neutral throughout the season, reducing its influence on South Asian rainfall variability. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral but is likely to shift to a negative phase by July, which could dampen rainfall in some parts of the country, particularly in the north.
Citizens in heat-prone areas should minimize sun exposure, stay hydrated, and monitor advisories during heatwave alerts. Provincial governments should ensure drainage clearance, activate early warning systems, and prepare response protocols for heatwaves and flood events.
Farmers in rain-deficient northern areas are urged to adopt water-saving practices, while those in central and southern zones should watch for signs of flooding or soil saturation.
