Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared set to remain in office as caretaker leader on Wednesday after election projections showed his right-wing bloc trailing the numbers needed to form a government, despite strong backing among Jewish voters.
With 91.7% of votes counted, Israel’s main broadcasters projected Netanyahu’s bloc would secure 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, falling short of the 61 seats required to secure a majority and form a government, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Arab parties were projected to win a combined 19 seats, potentially giving them decisive influence over coalition negotiations.
With no bloc appearing to have secured a clear majority, Arab political parties could play a decisive role in determining the formation of the next government once the final election results are announced.
The results could still change as counting continues, but the outcome points to prolonged political uncertainty in Israel, with neither main bloc holding a clear parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu remains in contention
The election projections initially showed Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition and Eisenkot’s opposition running neck and neck, raising the prospect of weeks of negotiations to form a government.
However, subsequent projections indicated that Netanyahu’s camp had gained stronger support than pre-election polls suggested, leaving Eisenkot with limited options for unseating the veteran prime minister.
Netanyahu is expected to remain caretaker prime minister during coalition negotiations and potentially until another election next year. Although a caretaker government faces certain constraints, experts say it retains substantial authority, including powers relating to the ongoing war with Iran.
Guy Lurie, a research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, said a caretaker government formally possesses the same powers as a regular government but is also bound by a “duty of restraint” and has less discretion in certain areas.
Israel’s fragmented political system has repeatedly produced inconclusive elections, with smaller parties often emerging as kingmakers. If no political bloc can secure the support needed to form a government, another election could become necessary.
Netanyahu calls for strong right-wing govt
Addressing Likud supporters in Jerusalem after 3am local time, Netanyahu called for the formation of a “strong, right-wing national government.”
He highlighted Israel’s military operations and described the election as a historic opportunity to remove what he called the Iranian threat. Netanyahu also raised the prospect of renewed joint military action against Iran alongside US President Donald Trump.
The Israeli leader said the two countries had a “singular historical opportunity” to eliminate the Iranian threat “once and for all.”
Trump, who had urged Israeli voters to keep Netanyahu in power so the two leaders could “finish the job” in Iran, said the prime minister had done “very well.” He also claimed his endorsement had helped Netanyahu considerably.
Netanyahu’s remarks underscored the central role of security and the Iran conflict in the election campaign.
Eisenkot challenges Netanyahu’s mandate
Eisenkot, 66, emerged as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger, presenting himself as a centrist on domestic issues while emphasising his military experience and security credentials.
He entered politics around four years ago and joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet following the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. However, he resigned eight months later, criticising the prime minister’s leadership.
Eisenkot said the election results reflected a rejection of Netanyahu’s continued leadership and argued that the prime minister should accept the public’s lack of confidence.
“The Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu’s service as Israel’s prime minister,” Eisenkot told supporters in Tel Aviv, arguing that a leader who had lost public confidence should consider leaving politics.
After the subsequent projections showed Netanyahu’s bloc ahead of his own, Eisenkot acknowledged that Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister but warned against using national security for political purposes.
He urged officials in Israel’s security establishment and civil service to resist any attempt to compromise their responsibilities for political reasons.
Netanyahu’s office has previously rejected accusations that he exploits the Iran conflict for political gain. His office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.
Arab parties emerge as potential kingmakers
Parties representing Arab Israelis were projected to secure 19 seats, an unprecedented result that could give them substantial influence in the formation of Israel’s next government.
However, Eisenkot has largely ruled out forming a government with Arab parties, complicating his efforts to assemble a parliamentary majority.
His opposition alliance includes parties ranging from the centre-left to the hard right, but its performance fell short of pre-election polling that had suggested a close contest.
The previous coalition that removed Netanyahu from office relied on the support of one small Arab party. This time, Eisenkot’s weaker showing means the opposition could need backing from the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties.
Most Jewish political leaders have historically rejected formal alliances with Arab parties, creating another obstacle for the opposition.
The Joint List headquarters erupted in whistles and applause when the initial exit polls were released, reflecting high turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.
“We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here,” Joint List candidate Faten Gattas said at the alliance’s headquarters in Nazareth.
Candidates had hoped that increased Arab participation would help prevent Netanyahu’s coalition from returning to power.
Record voter turnout marks historic election
Israel’s Central Elections Committee reported turnout of 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades and approximately seven percentage points higher than in the 2022 election.
Participation was particularly high among Israeli citizens of Palestinian descent, who make up more than a fifth of the population. Many were motivated by what they view as open racism from Netanyahu’s cabinet, which includes a party leader convicted of inciting racial hatred against Arabs.
The high turnout did not translate into a clear victory for either of the two main political blocs.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, initially described the exit polls as a major defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition but cautioned that Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner and that the final outcome could change as votes were counted.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid also portrayed the initial projections as a decisive rejection of Netanyahu’s government.
“Don’t let anyone confuse you: the Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse and the public has told them to go home,” Lapid said in a statement.
Subsequent vote projections, however, suggested Netanyahu’s bloc had performed better than the early exit polls indicated, reinforcing the uncertainty surrounding the final parliamentary balance.
Wartime election tests Israel’s political direction
The election was Israel’s first since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, when militants killed around 1,200 people and took 251 hostages, triggering wars in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, followed by the conflict with Iran.
The attack remains a defining issue in Israeli politics. Netanyahu has faced criticism over intelligence and security failures that allowed the assault to take place, while arguing that his government’s military campaigns have made Israel and the wider world safer.
He has pointed to the killing of senior figures from Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran as evidence of his government’s military achievements.
Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in the Gaza war, has argued that Israel’s response failed to achieve its objectives because Hamas remains in control of the territory.
He supports dismantling or destroying Hamas’ military wing and opposes Palestinian statehood, reflecting a broader hardening of security positions among Israeli political leaders since the October 2023 attack.
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities, and devastated much of the territory. The war has also contributed to Israel’s growing international isolation.
Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has pursued policies that have deepened divisions within Israel, while his opponents have struggled to present a united alternative to his leadership.
Rightward shift reshapes Israeli politics
The election highlighted the continued shift to the right among Jewish voters during Netanyahu’s years as Israel’s dominant political figure.
The centre-left, which dominated Israeli politics during the first half of the country’s history, has been reduced to a relatively small political force. Nearly all major Jewish parties now reject the prospect of an independent Palestinian state, despite its central role in internationally backed peace efforts since the 1990s.
Far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were initially projected to win a combined 13 seats within Netanyahu’s bloc.
Their influence remains significant in coalition negotiations, particularly as Netanyahu seeks to retain support from his right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies.
Netanyahu, 77, has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and has repeatedly survived political crises. His opponents have managed to remove him from office only once since 2009, following four inconclusive elections over two years.
He returned to power around 18 months later.
The prime minister also entered the election facing longstanding corruption charges, which he denies, as well as criticism over the intelligence failures surrounding the October 7 attack. He is also wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague on war crimes charges, which he has dismissed as absurd.
Iran war and regional tensions
The election’s implications extend beyond Israel, particularly as the conflict with Iran continues to shape regional security calculations.
In Tehran, banners featuring slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reminded residents of the US and Israeli strikes launched in February that began the war. A poster of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in Lebanon in an Israeli operation ordered by Netanyahu, stood nearby.
“I genuinely see the possibility of attack,” said Abdollah Karimi, a 50-year-old Iranian citizen, reflecting concerns about renewed military action.
In Egypt, the first Arab country to establish diplomatic relations with Israel in 1979, the election outcome also prompted disappointment among those hoping for a change in Israeli leadership.
Outhman Selim, a 62-year-old lawyer, said his hopes that a Netanyahu defeat would move Israel away from the far right had been dashed.
Netanyahu’s potential continuation as caretaker prime minister means Israel’s security policy could remain in his hands even without a confirmed parliamentary majority.
Political uncertainty weighs on Israeli markets
The prospect of a caretaker government without a parliamentary majority weighed on Israeli financial markets following the election projections.
The shekel weakened by around 1.6% to 3.10 against the US dollar, while Tel Aviv’s main benchmark stock indexes fell by more than 3%.
The market reaction reflected uncertainty over the government’s future, the duration of coalition negotiations and the potential direction of Israel’s security and economic policies.
Final results could take several days to establish, and smaller parties are expected to play a crucial role in determining whether either main bloc can assemble a governing coalition.
For now, Netanyahu remains positioned to continue as caretaker prime minister, while Eisenkot faces the challenge of building an alternative government amid deep political divisions and continuing regional conflict.
