A rapidly strengthening El Niño has reached record territory in the tropical Pacific, with scientists warning that the unusually powerful climate phenomenon could amplify extreme weather and put additional pressure on communities already facing the effects of human-caused global warming.
Recent analysis shows the event has reached record or near-record strength unusually early in the year.
The event has been described by some scientists as a “super El Niño”, although that is not an official scientific classification. NOAA says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.
El Niño reaches record territory
The latest data cited in the report put the temperature anomaly in the central Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region at around 3.05C, surpassing the previous daily high of 3.02C recorded in November 2015 when using the specified 1991-2020 baseline.
More recent Carbon Brief analysis using the NOAA Oceanic Niño Index convention found the daily anomaly had reached 3.07C on September 19, statistically tying the previous record of 3.08C from November 2015.
The NOAA-based measure uses a 30-year rolling climatological average, allowing scientists to account for changing baseline temperatures. NOAA’s September assessment said sea-surface temperature anomalies had exceeded 3C in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while Niño 3.4 had reached 1.8C in its monthly assessment.
El Niño is generally identified when the relevant sea-surface temperature anomaly reaches at least 0.5C. Above 2C, an event is considered “very strong”; the term “super El Niño” is commonly used informally for exceptionally powerful events.
Forecasts point to exceptional peak
Forecast models cited in the report project the event could strengthen substantially through November and December. An average of 14 modelling systems analysed by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather points to a peak around 4C, while the latest Carbon Brief analysis puts the projected monthly peak at about 4.1C.
Carbon Brief reported that every model run examined projected a peak above the 2015-16 event, although scientists have cautioned that forecasting an event of this unprecedented scale carries uncertainty because no previous event of comparable strength exists against which to test the models.
NOAA’s September outlook gives a 75% chance that the October-December 2026 period will produce a historic event exceeding the strength of El Niño episodes recorded since 1950, while putting the likelihood of a very strong event during autumn and winter above 90%.
Climate change could amplify impact
The current El Niño is unfolding on top of a much warmer climate caused largely by human activities, creating concern that its effects could be stronger than those experienced during previous major events.
Prof Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said the phenomenon represents a major redistribution of energy within the climate system and could produce unprecedented heat extremes, with consequences for health, food security and water availability.
Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth has similarly said the effects of El Niño are being magnified by global climate change, with recent heat and wildfire events in Europe, North America and Asia potentially representing an indication of what could follow.
The combination of natural El Niño warming and long-term human-caused warming is also expected to have a larger effect on global temperatures in 2027. Carbon Brief’s latest analysis says the current event is expected to have most of its global temperature impact next year because the atmospheric response to Pacific Ocean warming typically lags the ocean changes by several months.
Indonesia, India, Central America already feeling effects
Some of the anticipated impacts are already being reported. Hot and dry conditions in Indonesia have contributed to severe wildfires, with Carbon Brief reporting that 2026 fire emissions were on track to approach the country’s most intense fire season of the century.
India has experienced disruptions to important monsoon rainfall, while drought across parts of Central America and the Caribbean has contributed to crop losses and raised concerns over water levels in the Panama Canal.
The World Food Programme has warned that El Niño-related impacts could push around 50 million people into acute hunger and increase food prices.
Floods, extreme rainfall threaten other regions
El Niño does not produce the same weather pattern everywhere. While some areas face drought and heat, others can experience unusually heavy rainfall and flooding.
Peru and Chile have already faced severe impacts, while the Horn of Africa remains vulnerable to heavier downpours. The southern United States is also expected to see intense winter rainfall.
London and western Europe could experience a wetter winter, increasing the risk of flooding, while the southern hemisphere summer is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in Australia and southern Africa, raising wildfire and drought risks.
El Niño reshapes global weather patterns
El Niño develops when changes in tropical Pacific winds allow unusually warm water to shift eastward toward the coasts of Central and South America. The resulting ocean warming alters atmospheric circulation and affects jet streams, which can reshape weather patterns across large parts of the world.
In the United States, forecasters expect the phenomenon to influence winter conditions differently across regions. The East Coast and Appalachians could face a poorer ski season, while the southern Rockies could receive unusually heavy snow.
The Gulf Coast, particularly Florida, could see more winter thunderstorms, while Southern California faces the possibility of heavy rainfall and beach erosion.
The strong El Niño is also affecting tropical cyclone patterns. Increased wind shear over the Atlantic can disrupt developing tropical storms, helping explain the unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season described in the report.
By contrast, Pacific typhoons are expected to become more intense. The phenomenon’s influence on storm activity illustrates how a single shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures can produce sharply different consequences across the globe.
Panama Canal and global trade face risks
Drought associated with El Niño could also affect shipping through the Panama Canal by reducing reservoir levels needed to move vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
The disruption comes as the phenomenon is already affecting agriculture, water availability and energy demand in multiple regions, highlighting the broader economic consequences of increasingly volatile weather patterns.
Previous very strong El Niño events in 1997-98 and 2015-16 were associated with hundreds of billions of dollars in global damage. The report cites an estimate that the 1997-98 event resulted in losses of about $5.7 trillion.
Not every impact will be negative
Scientists stress that El Niño’s effects vary by location and sector. Increased rainfall in some regions can provide favourable growing conditions and improve soil moisture.
The US Midwest’s Corn Belt, one of the country’s most important agricultural areas, could benefit from additional moisture, even as other parts of the world face drought, crop losses and water shortages.
Scientists warn of uncertain climate future
Researchers are increasingly concerned that global warming could alter familiar El Niño patterns, making future events harder for governments and communities to anticipate.
The UN World Meteorological Organization has launched what it describes as its largest mobilisation in its 50-year history to help national weather services provide life-saving forecasts.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that El Niño is being “supersized” as the planet enters increasingly unfamiliar climate conditions. Prof Bill McGuire has likewise described the current Pacific warming as potentially one of the largest global weather upheavals in a millennium.
Scientists say the longer-term concern is not El Niño alone but its interaction with a warming planet. As long as fossil fuels continue to drive global warming, El Niño events will occur against an increasingly hotter baseline, potentially making their consequences more difficult for communities to manage.
