Pakistan aims for an economic growth rate to 4% in the upcoming fiscal year, up from an estimated 3.7% in FY26, even as the country manages crude price shock from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and remains under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
The GDP growth projected is driven by stronger performance in the agriculture, industry, and services sectors, according to projections shared by Topline Research on Monday.
The brokerage house shared that the agriculture sector will emerge as a key growth driver, with growth forecast to accelerate to 3.8% in FY27 from 2.9% in FY26.
The improvement is expected to stem from a sharp rebound in important crops, where growth is projected at 3.6%, up from just 0.6% in the outgoing fiscal year. Livestock, which remains the largest contributor within agriculture, is also expected to post steady growth of 3.9%, marginally higher than 3.8% in FY26.
The industrial sector is also projected to gather momentum, increasing by 4% in FY27 against an estimated 3.5% in FY26. However, growth within sub-sectors is expected to be uneven. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), which is forecast to grow by 6.1% in FY26, is expected to slow down to 4.5% in FY27, while construction activity is projected to reduce significantly to 2.2% from 5.7%.
Meanwhile, the services sector is expected to post a growth rate of 4.2% in FY27 compared to 4.1% in FY26.
Within services, wholesale and retail trade is projected to strengthen to 4.2% from 3.7%. Whereas, the information and communication sector is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing segments of the economy, with growth expected to edge up to 7.7% in FY27 from 7.5% in FY26.
