The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a gradual decline in Pakistan’s debt and fiscal deficit over the next five years.
According to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Report 2025, Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to fall from 71.6 per cent in the current year to 71.3 per cent. This ratio is expected to decline further to 60.2 per cent over the next five years.
The fiscal deficit is likely to reach 4.1 per cent of GDP this year, exceeding the official target of 3.9 per cent. However, it is projected to reduce progressively to 2.8 per cent over the five-year period.
The primary balance is expected to reach 2.5 per cent this year, slightly higher than the 2.4 per cent target. In the next fiscal year, the primary balance may be restricted to 2 per cent.
Government expenditure is projected to be 20.4 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal year, with expectations of a further decline to 19.6 per cent next year.
Pakistan’s revenue-to-GDP ratio is anticipated to rise to 16.2 per cent this year, up from 15.7 per cent in the previous fiscal year.
